Eric Zuesse – What explains the stunning decline in Corona Virus 19 cases? + Özcan Akyol – Rutte nooit getest en dat is tekenend + Gemma O Doherty – Breaking News

Dit is Mark! Mark laat zich niet testedn, want Mark heeft geen klachten | Be like Mark! (foto Instagram)

What explains the stunning decline in Corona Virus 19 cases?

The global peak in daily new cases of Corona Virus 19 disease was January 8th, and this was likewise the peak in US new cases. Globally, it was 845,693, and US was 308,443. The plunge since then has produced, as of February 5th, globally, 495,888, and US, 132,045 (and, on February 7th in the US, that was down to 89,691). So the decline between January 8th and February 5th was a change of -42% globally, and -57% in US.

What explains this?

On February 8th, the news site “Zero Hedge” headlined Even ‘Scientist’ Models Now Forecast The COVID Scourge Ending By The Summer and closed “This continued improvement – and acceleration of economic growth due to little need for lockdowns and restrictions – suggests that the US economy – and broader society as well – should be able to move beyond Corona some time in the early summer.” That prediction was based upon

Finally, and in the clearest indication that we are almost out of the woods, even “scientific models” expect Corona Virus to be a non event by June. BofA notes that “a fresh update to the University of Washington IHME’s Corona Virus 19 model shows they had underestimated the current rapid pace of improvement in the US Corona Virus situation”, but are now forecasting another wave of increasing daily new infections starting in the second half of this month (Figure 2) – probably due to the new more infectious strains of the Corona Virus. However, and as we previewed first back in December, “due to ongoing vaccinations of the most vulnerable, the negative consequences in the form of hospitalizations this time around are expected to be diminished significantly.

In fact IHME expects the number of people hospitalized in the US with Corona Virus 19 to continue to decline every single day through June 1st, which is the end of their forecast horizon (Figure 3).

How realistic is that optimistic prediction?

It is based upon an assumption that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), at the University of Washington, is a reliable predictor of the course of this pandemic – which is, thus far, actually false, not true. Furthermore, IHME’s current projection (which is based not upon the leading indicator, which is daily new cases, but instead upon the lagging indictor, which is daily deaths) simply assumes that the blip downward from the January 25th peak in the number of daily deaths from Corona Virus 19 downward to January 29th – that mere four day decline from the peak in this lagging indicator will continue into March and beyond into at least June, and that if the wearing of masks suddenly increases starting in late march, then things will be even better than that.

This ridiculous projection is supposedly based upon “‘Scientist’ Models” but it is certainly not based upon scientific models.

So, then: What explains the stunning decline in Covrona Virus  cases? This question isn’t even being discussed – at least not scientifically – and certainly not publicly, in any scientific way. That’s how bad the ‘news’-media (and “social ‘scientists”) actually are.

The Corona Virus 19 plunge, of around half, within just the past month, is huge global (and local) news, but it is being scientifically analyzed nowhere in the ‘news’ media.

A ‘news’ consumer is either an intelligent skeptic, or else a fool.

Rutte nooit getest en dat is tekenend

Voor Rutte hoeft het allemaal niet zo (foto Twitter)

AD, 5 februari 2021

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