US China trade war (foto Vox)
United States Balance of Trade (foto Trading Economiics)
US Trade Deficits Increase from Corona Virus
America’s trade deficit (excess of imports minus exports) reached its minimum in February 2020, and since then has increased 84% from February’s -3708, up to November’s -6812. America has one of the world’s highest rates of Corona Virus 19, or Covid 19, infection, and therefore is less productive and more needy than most countries are, during the Corona Virus crisis, and is consequently importing more and producing less. The reverse has generally been the case for the countries that have had good policy responses to the Virus – those countries’ economies have either been virtually unharmed by, or else have actually boomed from, this pandemic.
China’s mere month long trade deficit from Corona Virus was an enormous -62.05 in February, but by March China popped back up to +19.93 and has remained above +36 since that time, and it reached its high of +75.43 in November. China has one of the world’s lowest rates of Corona Virus 19 infection, and is therefore exporting more as it fulfills the needs of countries (such as America) that are producing less because of the Corona Virus crisis.
A major study by Jungle Scout, “Global Imports Report 2020”, says that
Those countries that were able to recover from the impact of early 2020 economic events are the countries faring better later in 2020. For example, China had the most drastic year over year reduction in US imports among the top 20 countries in February and March, second only to Hong Kong. But in April, China bounced back significantly, achieving approximately 40% year over year growth in US imports. The countries that were able to recover early are the countries faring better later in 2020.
On December 17th, Matthew C Klein at Barrons headlined “China’s Pandemic Recovery Accelerates While the US Economy Rolls Over” and he reported that, “Soaring consumer spending, rapid manufacturing growth, and robust exports are pushing up the speed of China’s recovery from the pandemic even as the third wave of the viral outbreak and the withdrawal of federal government income support are causing the U.S. economy to turn over.”
One of the very few countries that were hit about as little as China by this pandemic is Vietnam, whose northern border is China. Vietnam has perhaps the world’s most vigorous and well planned policies to restrain this Virus. The country’s only two months of trade deficit were during April, at -12.20, and popped back up to +12.33 in May, then peaked at +49.86 in August, and declined sharply down to +6.00 in November, and then down to -10.00 in December. Although Vietnam’s worst month of the infection was August, after which the numbers of new daily cases returned quickly to the extraordinarily low numbers of the preceding months, Vietnam was hit hard by retaliation (such as complaints and investigations) from the US regime in October, which caused an especially hard drop from 29.39 in October down to November’s +6.00, and then December’s -10.00. China wasn’t hit so hard by the US, mainly because Trump had already turned the screws against them earlier, and China had thus already reoriented its exports toward other countries. Yet, still, China has, steadily, each year, during the past five years, produced almost exactly 40% of all imports by the US. The impact of America’s policies against China has been much bigger in boosting America’s imports from China’s competitors than it has been in reducing America’s imports from China. America has been increasing its imports mainly from Vietnam, Germany, and Taiwan. So, those have been the chief beneficiaries of Trump’s anti Chinese policies.
Another of the very few countries that have been hit by this Corona Virus even less hard than China has been is Taiwan, which is almost unique in its enjoying a positive balance of trade throughout the year, and so Taiwan has produced recordm breaking trade surpluses ever since May. This is largely because Taiwan is selling more to all of the desperate countries, such as the United States (which regime is especially happy to increase its purchases from Taiwan so as to decrease its purchases from China and from Vietnam). Taiwan is perhaps the world’s top gainer as a consequence of this pandemic.
Unlike China, Vietnam, and Taiwan, Germany has been somewhat poor in its Corona Virus policies, and has 24,493 cases per million inhabitants, versus 16 in Vietnam, 36 in Taiwan, and 61 in China. America, by comparison, has 73,795. So, whereas America is over three times worse than Germany, it’s 4,612 times worse than Vietnam, 2,950 times worse than Taiwan, and 1,210 times worse than China. Germany is benefitting not because its Corona Virus policies have been good but because the American regime wants to crush China and for some products this means buying from Germany instead.
The people who were saying that the aggressive types of measures that countries such as China, Vietnam, and Taiwan, were imposing against this Virus would hurt instead of help those nations’ economies were not only wrong but they had their understanding exactly upside down. They were exactly and precisely and extremely wrong. And if the United States (and perhaps some of its allies) had not been retaliating against the countries (other than Taiwan) that are the most successful against this Virus, then the countries that have been doing an outstanding job of protecting their populations from this Virus would be economically benefitting even more than they have been economically benefitting from their success against this Virus. The result for the well performing countries is not only lower rates of disease and lower rates of deaths, but higher rates of economic production and GDP.
Corona Virus has thus been redirecting global leadership away from the United States. One might anticipate that America will respond by relying increasingly upon its military in order to impose its will – no longer as any sort of role model to inspire its ‘allies’. For example, on Christmas Day, December 25th of 2020, at the very same time that the nation’s austerity hawks were blocking passage of a Covid 19 relief bill in the US. Congress, and millions of Americans were terrified at the resulting prospects of soon becoming made homeless, CNN headlined “US Army prototype cannon blasts target from 43 miles away”, and presented video of a successful test of a tank’s cannon firing a small guided missile against a military vehicle that was located 43 miles away, which video CNN accompanied with martial music in celebration of the huge explosion and fireball annihilation of that targeted vehicle. America would then be selling its threats more, and its benefits less, and CNN was already a liberal cheerleader for this change to a more ‘assertive’ style of propaganda. But if this is liberal propaganda, then what is conservative propaganda; or: how will CNN now distinguish itself from, say, Fox?
Trump’s replacement, Biden, has appointed, to his Administration’s international affairs posts, individuals who are just as intensely neoconservative (or “hawkish” or “war loving”) as Trump did; and, therefore, the incentive for America’s trading partners to become less economically dependent upon America is likely to decrease little, if at all, and America’s balance of trade numbers will probably improve little, if at all, during his Presidency. America seems set on being an aggressive declining power, economically, no matter how much it will be spending militarily in order to prop up its power. America’s billionaires have been thriving while America has been spending around half of the entire world’s military expenditures, and, so, this type of US Government is unlikely to change in the near future.
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic versus Republican Economic Records, 1910 – 2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.