Corporate Defaults Soar, Mainly in US
Here are the 12 September 2023 numbers from S&P Global, for: US, Europe, Other Developed, Emerging Markets, and Global (total).
12 September 2023
August Tally 2023 YTD 2022 YTD
US 9 69 25 +176 %
Europe 5 19 7 +171 %
Other Developed 0 5 2 +150 %
Emerging Markets 2 14 20 -30 %
Global 16 107 54 +98 %
Aug. 2023 2022
The 10 Year Average Global August Figure is 8.6 Defaults; so, 16 August Defaults is +86% 86% higher than Average.
Under “Emerging Markets” Year To Date in 2023, that standout low number of 14 is almost entirely (13 out of the 14) in Latin America. In other words Emerging Markets outside of Latin America are doing fabulously well (far better than the “Developed” countries are).
Emerging markets are India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Turkiye, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, Poland, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and Colombia; and Sometimes include also China, and Taiwan (…)
Other Developed are Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand.
South Korea and Singapore aren’t included in any Category, by S&P Global.
On 3 August 2023, Erin Connors of intelligize.com headlined “Corporate Bankruptcies Continue Soaring to Near-Record Highs”, and reviewed, from many sources, the data during the first half of 2023, and concluded that
Taken as a whole, that is a staggering number of red flags for corporate America. Companies would be wise to heed Larsen’s warnings that “the era of easy money that prevailed throughout much of the previous decade amidst an environment of ultra-low interest rates is now little more than a distant memory, and that the ‘unlimited credit party’ that was enjoyed for so long is now well and truly over.”
Massive levels of debt rose while interest rates were at all-time lows for such a long time (“Quantitative Easing”); but, now, that’s ended. Therefore, rolling over the resultant mountain of debt (from “QE”), at these far higher interest rates, is what’s behind the soaring corporate defaults and bankruptcies.
On 6 July 2023, I headlined “Economist Who Predicted 2008 Crash Says Another Will Soon Happen”, and reported that the great economist Stephanie Pomboy, who had predicted the 2008 crash nearly 10 months before it occurred, was again predicting it (she was predicting what these new default and bankruptcy numbers are now confirming). If her lead-time turns out to be the same, then the crash this time will occur in or around April or May of 2024.
In short: we do appear now to be heading for a crash. However, since (outside of Latin America) the “Emerging Markets” (which are approximately all of the countries that aren’t allied with the United States) seem to be having far fewer defaults and bankruptcies than the U.S.-and-allied countries do, and since those failures aren’t soaring like in the U.S.-&-allied countries, the end-result from such a crash — if it does come — will probably be the decline of The West, and the rise of The Rest. So, it might be the end of the American empire — the end of the era that had begun on 25 July 1945, when Harry S. Truman decided that the U.S. Government must take over the entire world. Only time will tell whether that’s where we are headed.
The Impact America’s Defeat in Ukraine will have on the 2024 US Presidential Election
If Joe Biden will become the Democratic Party’s nominee for the Presidency, then almost any Republican nominee would likely beat him because he had committed America’s Government to victory there — done it is such a way that there can be no going back on it that won’t strip him of the public’s respect for him on account of America’s loss in that war.
21 February 2023 “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never. (Applause)”
13 July 2023 “We will not waver (…) for as long as it takes”.
24 August 2023 “Our commitment to Ukraine’s independence is unwavering and enduring.”
21 September 2023 “Mr. President [Zelensky], we’re, we’re with you, and we’re staying with you.”
If Kamala Harris will become the Democratic Party’s nominee for the Presidency, then she will never be able to disassociate herself from having been his N° 2.
On the other hand: If RFK Jr will be the Democratic Party’s nominee for the Presidency, then he will surely win the Presidency (unless he becomes assassinated), because he had been saying, all along, that Biden’s refusal for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia was serving only to increase the bloodshed in that war — which has been proven to have been correct. He not only criticized what Biden was doing but said that Biden’s saying that if Russia wins the war, then America loses the war, and that if America wins the war, then Russia loses the war, casts that war as being of existential importance to both countries, which is blatantly false because Ukraine has nothing to do with America’s national security; it’s thousands of miles away and poses no threat to America; but it is only 300 miles away from The Kremlin and is therefore even closer to Russia’s Central Command than in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Cuba was to America’s Central Command in Washington DC. American Missiles in Ukraine would pose an even bigger threat to Russia than Soviet Missiles in Cuba would have posed to America. RFK Jr strongly opposed Biden’s Ukraine policy, which was Obama’s Ukraine policy — the policy aimed at conquering Russia — but Trump never did anything to reverse the Obama-Biden Ukraine policy. And, so, if America loses the war in Ukraine, then RFK Jr would trounce Trump, but Trump would trounce Biden.
If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, then he would easily beat Biden as the opposite Party’s nominee but would lose to Kennedy as that Party’s nominee, because Trump, while he still was in office, did nothing to reverse the horror that Obama had done to Ukraine by grabbing it in his 2014 Maidan U.S. coup and installing there a rabidly anti-Russian government which produced the war in Ukraine, which started soon after that coup.
Biden was carrying out Obama’s Ukraine-policy against Russia, but Trump did nothing to reverse it and to end the war there that Obama had started by grabbing Ukraine.
Therefore: if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, then virtually any Republican would beat Biden as the Democratic nominee, but RFK Jr would beat any Republican nominee. RFK Jr has none of the taint of the Obama-Biden Ukraine policy, but Obama and Biden couldn’t have carried out that policy if it didn’t have virtually unanimous support from congressional Republicans. Whereas RFK Jr can free the Democratic Party of the taint of the Obama-Biden Ukraine policy, there is no Republican who can free the Republican Party from the taint of that policy.
If Russia wins in Ukraine, then only RFK Jr could beat any Republican nominee.
However, if America wins in Ukraine (which Russia won’t allow, because that would pose a severe existential threat to Russia’s national security — it would mean the end of Russia as an independent sovereign nation), then Biden (or another neoconservative Democrat) will (tragically for the entire world) win in 2024.
Of course: if Ukraine’s war drags on for as long as Biden is hoping it will, then the likelihood is high that he will win the nomination; and, then, he would stand a reasonably strong chance of again winning the Presidency. This is the reason why I’m expecting Russia to win the war on its terms and within the next few months (this year) — not allow it to drag on until the 2024 voting starts in America.
Biden’s Deal to Republicans: Halt Impeachment Inquiry, or Else Government Shuts Down
On September 22nd, Politico bannered “Katherine Clark names the Democrats’ price to save Kevin McCarthy” and reported that the White House’s (Biden’s) list of the three demands in order for there not to be a shut-down of the U.S. Government, include that “we want them [Congressional Republicans] to end this sham of an impeachment inquiry.” That’s quoting from House Democratic Whip, Representative (Massachusetts) Katherine Clark, who carries President Biden’s instructions to the U.S. House in order to get it to pass bills that the President will then sign into law (or otherwise he won’t). Republicans right now are investigating the evidence that when Vice President, Biden had received a $ 5 million bribe from the Ukrainian gas exploration company Burisma for the U.S. Government to force Ukraine’s government to fire its investigator into that company, which company had just placed Biden’s son Hunter Biden onto its board in order to get to bribe both Hunter and Joe to get that investigator fired by Ukraine’s government. Most of the evidence in the case comes from Hunter’s laptop computer, which Hunter had abandoned at a repair shop and never picked up, and which U.S. media (except for the Republican Party’s NY Post) had pretended to be mere ‘Russian disinformation’, not authentic.
Does the President ever bluff the Congress? Yes, at least in recent times it has happened: Trump did it, and then Biden did. Lying by U.S. Presidents is now normal, even if it hadn’t been (or hadn’t so much been) previously. However, for a U.S. President to threaten a U.S. Government shut-down over a personal matter (such as that impeachment investigation into him) would probably establish a new low in ethics for the U.S. Government.
The Government shut-down deadline is currently set for Friday, September 30th. Conceivably, Biden, given a choice between either House Republicans making public yet previously undisclosed evidence that he had sold-out his public office for this or some other bribe, or else their sending to his desk a bill that complies with all three of his demands and which he then will sign into law and thus prevent such a shut-down, might make a choice; or else, there might be instead yet another Continuing Resolution (“CR”) to kick this can still farther down the road, into, perhaps some wilderness that will be hidden from the public, and which the public will only be guessing about.
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s new book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.
Eric Zuesse blogs at https://theduran.com/author/eric-zuesse/.